References

NHESS

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

NHESS

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

1684-9981

Copernicus Publications

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/nhess-13-1929-2013

A method for multi-hazard mapping in poorly known volcanic areas: an example from Kanlaon (Philippines)

Neri

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5890-3398

¹ Le Cozannet

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2421-3003

² Thierry

² Bignami

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8632-9979

³ Ruch

⁴

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Catania, Italy

Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières, Orléans, France

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Centro Nazionale Terremoti, Rome, Italy

Dipartimento di Scienze, Università Roma Tre, Rome, Italy

01 08 2013

13 8 1929 1943

2013

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/13/1929/2013/nhess-13-1929-2013.html

The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/13/1929/2013/nhess-13-1929-2013.pdf

Hazard mapping in poorly known volcanic areas is complex since much evidence of volcanic and non-volcanic hazards is often hidden by vegetation and alteration. In this paper, we propose a semi-quantitative method based on hazard event tree and multi-hazard map constructions developed in the frame of the FP7 MIAVITA project. We applied this method to the Kanlaon volcano (Philippines), which is characterized by poor geologic and historical records. We combine updated geological (long-term) and historical (short-term) data, building an event tree for the main types of hazardous events at Kanlaon and their potential frequencies. We then propose an updated multi-hazard map for Kanlaon, which may serve as a working base map in the case of future unrest. The obtained results extend the information already contained in previous volcanic hazard maps of Kanlaon, highlighting (i) an extensive, potentially active ~5 km long summit area striking north–south, (ii) new morphological features on the eastern flank of the volcano, prone to receiving volcanic products expanding from the summit, and (iii) important riverbeds that may potentially accumulate devastating mudflows. This preliminary study constitutes a basis that may help local civil defence authorities in making more informed land use planning decisions and in anticipating future risk/hazards at Kanlaon. This multi-hazard mapping method may also be applied to other poorly known active volcanoes.

European Commission

MIAVITA - Mitigate and assess risk from volcanic impact on terrain and human activities (211393)

References 1

Acocella, V., Porreca, M., Neri, M., Mattei, M., and Funiciello, R.: Fissure eruptions at Mount Vesuvius (Italy): insights on the shallow propagation of dikes at volcanoes, Geology, 34, 673–676, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/G22552.1">https://doi.org/10.1130/G22552.1</a>, 2006a.

Acocella, V., Neri, M., and Scarlato, P.: Understanding shallow magma emplacement at volcanoes: Orthogonal feeder dikes during the 2002–2003 Stromboli (Italy) eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17310, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026862">https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026862</a>, 2006b.

Aspinall, W. P.: Structured elicitation of expert judgment and its use for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions, in: Statistics in Volcanology, edited by: Mader, H. M., Coles, S. G., Connor, C. B., and Connor, L. J., Geol. Soc. London, International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior, IAVCEI Publications, London, 1–268, 2006.

Aspinall, W. P., Carniel, R., Jaquet, O., Woo, G., and Hincks, T.: Using hidden multi-state Markov models with multi-parameter volcanic data to provide empirical evidence for alert level decision-support, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 153, 112–124, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2005.08.010">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2005.08.010</a>, 2006.

Ayonghe, S. N., Ntasin, E. B., Samalang, P., and Suh, C. E.: The June 27, 2001 landslide on volcanic cones in Limbe, Mount Cameroon, West Africa, J. Afr. Earth Sci., 39, 435–439, 10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2004.07.022, 2004.

Barreca, G., Bonforte, A., and Neri, M.: A pilot GIS database of active faults of Mt. Etna (Sicily): A tool for integrated hazard evaluation, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 251, 170–186, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.08.013">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.08.013</a>, 2013.

Bell, R. and Glade, T.: Multi-hazard analysis in natural risk assessments, in: Risk Analysis IV, edited by: Brebbia, C. A., WIT Press Southampton, 197–206, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/RISK040181">https://doi.org/10.2495/RISK040181</a>, 2004.

Bignami, C., Ruch. J., Chini, M., Neri, M., and Buongiorno, F.: Pyroclastic density current volume estimation after the 2010 Merapi volcano eruption using X-band SAR, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.03.023">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.03.023</a>, in press, 2013.

Boiteux, M. and Baumstark, L.: Transport: choix des investissements et co\^ut des nuisances, Report, Commissariat Général du Plan, La Documentation française, Paris, France, 328 pp., available at: <a href="http://www.ladocumentationfrancaise.fr/var/storage/rapports-publics/014000434/0000.pdf">http://www.ladocumentationfrancaise.fr/var/storage/rapports-publics/014000434/0000.pdf</a>, last access: July 2013, 2001 (in French).

Cash, D. W., Clark, W. C., Alcock, F., Dickson, N. M., Eckley, N., Guston, D. H., Jager, J., and Mitchell, R. B.: Knowledge systems for sustainable development, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 100, 8086–8091, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231332100">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231332100</a>, 2003.

Crisci, G. M., Avolio, M. V., Behncke, B., D'Ambrosio, D., Di Gregorio, S., Lupiano, V., Neri, M., Rongo, R., and Spataro, W.: Predicting the impact of lava flows at Mount Etna, Italy, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B04203, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009jb006431">https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jb006431</a>, 2010.

Cronin, S. J., Gaylord, D. R., Charley, D., Alloway, B. V., Wallez, S., and Esau, J. W.: Participatory methods of incorporating scientific with traditional knowledge for volcanic hazard management on Ambae Island, Vanuatu, B. Volcanol., 66, 652–668, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-004-0347-9">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-004-0347-9</a>, 2004.

Douglas, J.: Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 283–288, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-283-2007">https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-283-2007</a>, 2007.

Favalli, M., Tarquini, S., Papale, P., Fornaciai, A., and Boschi, E.: Lava flow hazard and risk at Mt. Cameroon volcano, B. Volcanol., 74, 423–439, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0540-6">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0540-6</a>, 2012.

Grunthal, G., Thieken, A. H., Schwarz, J., Radtke, K. S., Smolka, A., and Merz, B.: Comparative risk assessments for the city of Cologne – Storms, floods, earthquakes, Nat. Hazards, 38, 21–44, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8598-0">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8598-0</a>, 2006.

Gurioli, L., Sulpizio, R., Cioni, R., Sbrana, A., Santacroce, R., Luperini, W., and Andronico, D.: Pyroclastic flow hazard assessment at Somma–Vesuvius based on the geological record, B. Volcanol., 72, 1021–1038, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0379-2">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0379-2</a>, 2010.

Hayes, S. K., Montgomery, D. R., and Newhall, C. G.: Fluvial sediment transport and deposition following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Geomorphology, 45, 211–224, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0169-555x(01)00155-6">https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-555x(01)00155-6</a>, 2002.

Haynes, K., Barclay, J., and Pidgeon, N.: Volcanic hazard communication using maps: an evaluation of their effectiveness, B. Volcanol., 70, 123–138, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0124-7">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0124-7</a>, 2007.

IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp., 2012.

Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., von Elverfeldt, K., and Glade, T.: Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review, Nat. Hazards, 64, 1925–1958, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0294-2">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0294-2</a>, 2012.

Klose, C. D.: Health risk analysis of volcanic SO<sub>2</sub> hazard on Vulcano Island (Italy), Nat. Hazards, 43, 303–317, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9115-4">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9115-4</a>, 2007.

Lavigne, F., de Bélizal, E., Cholik, N., Aisyah, N., Picquout, A., and Tyas Wulan Mei, E.: Lahar hazards and risks following the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano, Indonesia, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 April 2011, EGU2011-4400, 2011.

Macías, J. L., Capra, L., Arce, J. L., Espindola, J. M., Garcia-Palomo, A., and Sheridan, M. F.: Hazard map of El Chichón volcano, Chiapas, México: Constraints posed by eruptive history and computer simulations, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Rese., 175, 444–458, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.02.023">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.02.023</a>, 2008.

Martì, J., Aspinall, W. P., Sobradelo, R., Felpeto, A., Geyer, A., Ortiz, R., Baxter, P., Cole, P., Pacheco, J., Blanco, M. J., and Lopez, C.: A long-term volcanic hazard event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife, Canary Islands), J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 178, 543–552, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.09.023">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.09.023</a>, 2008.

Marzocchi, W. and Woo, G.: Principles of volcanic risk metrics: Theory and the case study of Mount Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, Italy, J. Geophys. Res., 114, B03213, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008jb005908">https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jb005908</a>, 2009.

Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Gasparini, P., Newhall, C., and Boschi, E.: Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B11201, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004jb003155">https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jb003155</a>, 2004.

Marzocchi, W., Mastellone, M. L., Di Ruocco, A., Novelli, P., Romeo, E., and Gasparini, P.: Principles of multi-risk assessment, Interaction amongst natural and man induced risks, European Commission EUR23615, Brussels, Belgium, 72 pp., 2009.

Marzocchi W., Sandri L., and Selva J.: BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment, B. Volcanol., 72, 717–733, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0358-7">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0358-7</a>, 2010.

Neri, A., Aspinall, W. P., Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Baxter, P. J., Zuccaro, G., Andronico, D., Barsotti, S., Cole, P. D., Ongaro, T. E., Hincks, T. K., Macedonio, G., Papale, P., Rosi, M., Santacroce, R., and Woo, G.: Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 178, 397–415, 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.05.014, 2008.

Neri, M., Lanzafame, G., and Acocella, V.: Dike emplacement and related hazard in volcanoes with sector collapse: the 2007 Stromboli eruption, J. Geol. Soc. London, 165, 883–886, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/0016-76492008-002">https://doi.org/10.1144/0016-76492008-002</a>, 2008.

Newhall, C. G. and Hoblitt, R. P.: Constructing event trees for volcanic crises, B. Volcanol., 64, 3–20, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s004450100173">https://doi.org/10.1007/s004450100173</a>, 2002.

Newhall, C. G. and Self, S.: The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) – An Estimate of Explosive Magnitude for Historical Volcanism, J. Geophys. Res., 87, 1231–1238, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/JC087iC02p01231">https://doi.org/10.1029/JC087iC02p01231</a>, 1982.

Rae, A. J., Cooke, D. R., Phillips, D., and Zaide-Delfin, M.: The nature of magmatism at Palinpinon geothermal field, Negros Island, Philippines: implications for geothermal activity and regional tectonics, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 129, 321–342, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0377-0273(03)00280-4">https://doi.org/10.1016/s0377-0273(03)00280-4</a>, 2004.

Sandri, L., Jolly, G., Lindsay, J., Howe, T., and Marzocchi, W.: Combining long- and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, B. Volcanol., 74, 705–723, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0556-y">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0556-y</a>, 2012.

Selva, J., Costa, A., Marzocchi, W., and Sandri, L.: BET\textunderscore VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy), B. Volcanol., 72, 717–733, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0358-7">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0358-7</a>, 2010.

Siebert, L., Simkin, T., and Kimberly, P.: Volcanoes of the World. Smithsonian Institution, Washington D.C., University of California Press, 551 pp., 2010.

Simkin, T., Siebert, L., McClelland, L., Bridge, D., Newhall, C., and Latter, J. H.: Volcanoes of the World, Smithsonian Institution, Hutchinson Ross, Pennsylvania, USA, 1981.

Solaro, G., Acocella, V., Pepe, S., Ruch, J., Neri, M., and Sansosti, E.: Anatomy of an unstable volcano from InSAR: Multiple processes affecting flank instability at Mt. Etna, 1994–2008, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B10405, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009jb000820">https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jb000820</a>, 2010.

Solidum, R. U., Castillo, P. R., and Hawkins, J. W.: Geochemistry of lavas from Negros Arc, west central Philippines: Insights into the contribution from the subducting slab, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 4, 9008, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003gc000513">https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gc000513</a>, 2003.

Spence, R. J. S., Kelman, I., Baxter, P. J., Zuccaro, G., and Petrazzuoli, S.: Residential building and occupant vulnerability to tephra fall, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 477–494, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-477-2005">https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-477-2005</a>, 2005.

Stieltjes, L.: Vulnérabilité aux phénomènes volcaniques: méthodologie et évaluation. Application à la Martinique: rapport d'étape 1997, BRGM Report R39735, Orléans, France, 205 pp., 1997 (in French).

Thierry, P., Stieltjes, L., Kouokam, E., Ngueya, P., and Salley, P. M.: Multi-hazard risk mapping and assessment on an active volcano: the GRINP project at Mount Cameroon, Nat. Hazards, 45, 429–456, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9177-3">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9177-3</a>, 2008.

Vecchia, A. V.: A unified approach to probabilistic risk assessments for earthquakes, floods, landslides, and volcanoes, in: Proceedings of a multidiscipilinary workshop held in Golden, Colorado November 16–17, 1999, Open-File Report 01-324, US Geological Survey, 2001.

Vicari, A., Ganci, G., Behncke, B., Cappello, A., Neri, M., and Del Negro, C.: Near-real-time forecasting of lava flow hazards during the 12–13 January 2011 Etna eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L13317, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011gl047545">https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl047545</a>, 2011.

Von Biedersee, H. and Pichler, H.: The Canlaon and its neighboring volcanos in the Negros Belt Philipines, J. Southe. Asian Earth, 11, 111–123, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0743-9547(94)00042-d">https://doi.org/10.1016/0743-9547(94)00042-d</a>, 1995.

Zogning, A.: Le Mont Cameroun, un volcan actif: contribution à l'étude de géographie physique appliquée, Thèse de Doctorat de 3$^e$ cycle, Univ. Yaoundé, 447 pp., 1988 (in French).