References

NHESS

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

NHESS

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

1684-9981

Copernicus Publications

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/nhess-13-1567-2013

Coupled atmosphere ocean climate model simulations in the Mediterranean region: effect of a high-resolution marine model on cyclones and precipitation

Sanna

¹ Lionello

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0779-5681

¹ ² Gualdi

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7777-8935

¹ ³

CMCC, viale Aldo Moro 44, 40127 Bologna, Italy

Unisalento, S.P. 6, Monteroni, 73100 Lecce, Italy

INGV, via Donato Creti 12, 40128 Bologna, Italy

19 06 2013

13 6 1567 1577

2013

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/13/1567/2013/nhess-13-1567-2013.html

The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/13/1567/2013/nhess-13-1567-2013.pdf

In this study we investigate the importance of an eddy-permitting Mediterranean Sea circulation model on the simulation of atmospheric cyclones and precipitation in a climate model. This is done by analyzing results of two fully coupled GCM (general circulation models) simulations, differing only for the presence/absence of an interactive marine module, at very high-resolution (~ 1/16°), for the simulation of the 3-D circulation of the Mediterranean Sea. Cyclones are tracked by applying an objective Lagrangian algorithm to the MSLP (mean sea level pressure) field. On annual basis, we find a statistically significant difference in vast cyclogenesis regions (northern Adriatic, Sirte Gulf, Aegean Sea and southern Turkey) and in lifetime, giving evidence of the effect of both land–sea contrast and surface heat flux intensity and spatial distribution on cyclone characteristics. Moreover, annual mean convective precipitation changes significantly in the two model climatologies as a consequence of differences in both air–sea interaction strength and frequency of cyclogenesis in the two analyzed simulations.

References 1

Alpert, P. and Ziv, B.: The sharav cyclone – observations and some theoretical considerations, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 18495–18514, 1989.

Alpert, P., Neeman, B. U., and Shay-El, Y.: Climatological analysis of Mediterranean cyclones using ECMWF data, Tellus, 42A, 65–77, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.00007.x">https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.00007.x</a>, 1990.

Artale, V., Iudicone, D., Santoleri, R., Rupolo, V., Marullo, S., and D'Ortenzio, F.: Role of surface fluxes in ocean general circulation models using satellite sea surface temperature: validation of and sensitivity to the forcing frequency of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 3120, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000452">https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000452</a>, 2002.

Artale, V., Calmanti, S., Carillo, A., Dell'Aquila, A., Herrmann, M., Pisacane, G., Ruti, P. M., Sannino, G., Struglia1, M. V., Giorgi, F., Bi, X., Pal, J. S., Rauscher, S. and The PROTHEUS Group: An atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation, Clim. Dynam., 35, 721–740, 2010.

Bellucci, A., Gualdi, S., Scoccimarro, E., and Navarra, A.: NAO – ocean circulation interactions in a coupled general circulation model, Clim. Dynam., 31, 7–8, 759–777, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0408-4">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0408-4</a>, 2008.

Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Roeckner, E.: Storm tracks and climate change, J. Climate, 19, 3518–3543, 2006.

Berrisford, P., Dee, D., Fielding, K., Fuentes, M., Kallberg, P., Kobayashi, S., and Uppala, S.: The ERA Interim archive, Tech. Rep. ERA Rep. Series 1, ECMWF, 2009.

Buzzi, A. and Tibaldi, S.: Cyclogenesis in the lee of the Alps: A case study, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 104, 271–287, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710444004">https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710444004</a>, 1978.

Campins, J., Genovès, A., Picornell, M. A., and Jansà, A.: Climatology of Mediterranean cyclondes using ERA-40 dataset, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1596–1614, 2011.

Dubois, C., Somot, S., Calmanti, S., Carillo, A., Déqué, M., Dell'Aquila, A., Elizalde, A., Gualdi, S., Jacob, D., L'Hévéder, B., Li, L., Oddo, P., Sannino, G., Scoccimarro, E., and Sevault, F.: Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models, Clim. Dynam., 39, 1859–1884, 2012.

Elguindi, N., Somot, S., Déqué, M., and Ludwig, W.: Climate change evolution of the hydrological balance of the Mediterranean, Black and Caspian Seas: impact of climate model resolution, Clim. Dynam., 36, 205–228, 2009.

Flocas, H., Maheras, P, Karacostas, T, Patrikas, I, and Anagnostopoulou, C.: A 40-year climatological study of relative vorticity distribution over the Mediterranean, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 1759–1778, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.705">https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.705</a>, 2001.

Flocas, H., Simonds, I., Kouroutzoglou, J., Keay, K., Hatzaki, M., Bricolas, V., and Asimakopoulos, D.: On Cyclonic Tracks over the Eastern Mediterranean, J. Climate, 23, 5243–5257, 2010.

Fogli, P. G., Manzini, E., Vichi, M., Alessandri, A., Patara, L., Gualdi, S., Scoccimarro, E., Masina, S., and Navarra, A.: INGV-CMCC Carbon (ICC): A Carbon Cycle Earth System Model, CMCC Technical Reports 61, 2009.

Giordani, H. and Caniaux, G.: Sensitivity of Cyclogenesis to Sea Surface Temperature in the Northwestern Atlantic, Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1273–1295, 2001.

Gualdi, S., Scoccimarro, E., and Navarra, A.: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model, J. Climate, 21, 5204–5228, 2008.

Gualdi, S., Somot, S., Li, L., Artale, V., Adani, M., Bellucci, A., Braun, A., Calmanti, S., Carillo, A., Dell'Aquila, A., Déqué, M., Dubois, C., Elizalde, A., Harzallah, A., Jacob, D., L'Hévéder, B., May, W., Oddo, P., Ruti, P., Sanna, A., Sannino, G., Scoccimarro, E., Sevault, F., and Navarra, A.: The CIRCE simulations: a new set of regional climate change projections performed with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea, BAMS, 94, 65–81, 2012.

Gulev, S., Zolina, O., and Grigoriev, S.: Extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Clim. Dynam., 17, 795–809, 2001.

Hoskins, B. J. and Hodges, K. I.: New perspectives on the northern hemisphere winter storm tracks, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1041–1061, 2002.

IPCC TAR (WG1): Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A.: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0-521-80767-0 (pb: 0-521-01495-6), 2001.

Jansa, A., Genoves, A., Picornell, M. A., Campins, J., Riosalido, R. and Carretero, O.: Western Mediterranean cyclones and heavy rain. Part2: Statistical approach, Meteorol. Appl., 8, 43–56, 2001.

Josey, S. A., Kent, E. C., Oakley, D., and Taylor, P. K.: A new global air-sea heat and momentum flux climatology, International WOCE, Newsletter, 25, 3–5, 1996.

Lebeaupin, C., Ducrocq, V., and Giordani, H.: Sensitivity of torrential rain events to the sea surface temperature based on high-resolution numerical forecasts, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006541">https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006541</a>, 2006.

Li, L. Z. X.: Atmospheric GCM response to an idealized anomaly of the Mediterranean sea surface temperature, Clim. Dynam., 27, 543–552, 2006.

Lionello, P. and Giorgi, F.: Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation, Adv. Geosci., 12, 153–158, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-12-153-2007">https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-12-153-2007</a>, 2007.

Lionello, P., Dalan, F., and Elvini, E.: Cyclones in the Mediterranean region: the present and the doubled CO<sub>2</sub> climate scenarios, Clim. Res., 22, 147–159, 2002.

Lionello, P., Martucci, G., and Zampieri, M.: Implementation of a coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model in the Mediterranean Sea: sensitivity of the short time scale evolution to the air-sea coupling mechanisms, The Global Atmos. Ocean Syst., 9, 65–95, 2003.

Madec, G., Chartier, M., Delecluse, P., and Crepon, M.: A 3-dimensional numerical study of deep-water formation in the northwestern mediterranean-sea, J. Phys. Ocean., 21, 1349–1371, 1991.

Madec, G., Delecluse, P., Imbard, M., and Levy, C.: OPA 8.1 Ocean General Circulation Model reference manual, Internal Rep. 11, Inst. Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris, France, 1998.

Maheras, P., Flocas, H., Patrikas, I., and Anagnostopoulou, C.: A 40 year objective climatology of surface cyclones in the Mediterranean region: spatial and temporal distribution, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 109–130, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.599">https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.599</a>, 2001.

Mak, M.: Influence of surface sensible heat flux on incipient marine cyclogenesis, J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 820–834, 1998.

MEDOC Group: Observation of formation of deep water in the Mediterranean Sea, 1969, Nature, 227, 1037–1040, 1970.

Mertens, C. and Schott, F.: Interannual Variability of Deep-Water Formation in the Northwestern Mediterranean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 28, 1410–1424, 1998.

Miglietta, M. M., Moscatello, A., Conte, D., Mannarini, G., Lacorata, G., and Rotunno, R.: Numerical analysis of a Mediterranean "hurricane" over south-eastern Italy: Sensitivity experiments to sea surface temperature, Atmos. Res., 101, 412–426, 2011.

Oddo, P., Adani, M., Pinardi, N., Fratianni, C., Tonani, M., and Pettenuzzo, D.: A nested Atlantic-Mediterranean Sea general circulation model for operational forecasting, Ocean Sci., 5, 461–473, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/os-5-461-2009">https://doi.org/10.5194/os-5-461-2009</a>, 2009.

Petterssen, S.: Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Volume I, Mac Graw Hill, New York, 1956.

Pinto, J. G., Spangehl, T., Ulbrich, U., and Speth, P.: Assessment of winter cyclone activity in a transient ECHAM4-OPYC3 GHG experiment, Meteorol. Z., 15, 279–291, 2006.

Raible, C. C., Ziv, B., Saaroni, H., and Wild, M.: Winter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under future climate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5, Clim. Dynam., 35, 473–488, 2010.

Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670">https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670</a>, 2003.

Reale, M. and Lionello, P.: Synoptic climatology of winter intense precipitation events along the Mediterranean coasts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., in review, 2012.

Roebber, P. J.: The role of surface heat and moisture ?uxes associated with large-scale ocean current meanders in maritime cyclogenesis, Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1676–1694, 1989.

Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., and Tompkins, A.: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: Model description, Rep. No. 349, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, 127 pp., 2003.

Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model, J. Climate, 19, 3771–3791, 2006.

Rudeva, I. and Gulev, S. K.: Composite Analysis of North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones in NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Data, Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1419–1446, 2011.

Scoccimarro, E., Gualdi, S., Bellucci, A., Sanna, A., Fogli, P. G., Manzini, E., Vichi, M., Oddo, P., and Navarra, A.: Effects of tropical cyclones on ocean heat transport in a high resolution coupled general circulationmodel, J. Climate, 24, 4368–4384, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4104.1">https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4104.1</a>, 2011.

Shay-El, Y. and Alpert, P., : A diagnostic study of winter diabatic heating in the Mediterranean in relation to cyclone, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 117, 715–747, 1991

Simmonds, I. and Keay, K.: Variability of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone behavior, 1958–97, J. Climate., 13, 550–561, 2000.

Simmonds, I. and Murray, R.: Southern extratropical cyclone behavior in ECMWF analyses during the FROST special observing periods, Weather Forecast., 14, 878–891, 1999.

Sinclair, M.: Objective identification of cyclones and their circulation intensity and climatology, Weather Forecast., 12, 595–612, 1997.

Somot, S., Sevault, F., Dequé, M., and Crépon, M.: 21st century climate change scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, Glob. Planet Change, 63, 112–126, 2008.

Trenberth, E.: Climate System Modeling, Cambridge University Press, 788 pp., 1992.

Trigo, I., Davies, T., and Bigg, G.: Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean, Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1685–1696, 1999.

Trigo, I., Bigg, G., and Davies, T.: Climatology of cyclogenesis mechanisms in the Mediterranean, Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 549–569, 2002.

Uppala, S. M., Kållberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., da Costa Bechtold, V., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hólm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., McNally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette, J.-J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961–3012, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.176">https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.176</a>, 2005.

Vichi, M., Manzini, E., Fogli, P. G., Alessandri, A., Patara, L., Masina, S., Gualdi, S., Scoccimarro, E., and Navarra, A.: Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: Sensitivity to an aggressive mitigation scenario, Clim. Dynam., 37, 1929–1947, 2011.

Von Storch, H. and Zwiers, F.: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, Cambridge University Press, 494 pp., 1999.

Winschall, A., Pfahl, S., Sodemann, H., and Wernli, H.: Impact of North Atlantic evaporation hot spots on southern Alpine heavy precipitation events, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 1245–1258, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.987">http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.987</a>, 2012.

Xie, P. and Arkin, P. A.: Analysis of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model predictions, J. Climate, 9, 840–858, 1996.

Yao, Y., Perrie, W., Zhang, W., and Jiang, J.: Characteristics of atmosphere-ocean interactions along North Atlantic extratropical storm tracks, J. Geoph. Res., 113, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008854">https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008854</a>, 2008.

Yuan, X., Patoux, J., and Li, C.: Satellite-based midlatitude cyclone statistics over the Southern Ocean: 2. Tracks and surface fluxes, J. Geophys. Res., 114, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010874">https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010874</a>, 2009.

Zecchetto, S. and De Biasio, F.: Sea Surface Winds over the Mediterranean Basin from Satellite Data (2000-04): Meso and Local-Scale Features on Annual and Seasonal Time Scales, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 46, 814–827, 2007.