References

NHESS

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

NHESS

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

1684-9981

Copernicus Publications

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/nhess-13-1143-2013

Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and its application to Hualien City, Taiwan

Chan

C.-H.

¹ Wu

Y.-M.

¹ Cheng

C.-T.

² Lin

P.-S.

² Wu

Y.-C.

Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

Disaster Prevention Technology Research Center, Sinotech Engineering Consultants, Inc., Taipei, Taiwan

Institute of Nuclear Energy Research, Longtan, Taiwan

03 05 2013

13 5 1143 1158

2013

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

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The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/13/1143/2013/nhess-13-1143-2013.pdf

Here, we propose a time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and apply it to Hualien City, Taiwan. A declustering catalog from 1940 to 2005 was used to build up a long-term seismicity rate model using a smoothing Kernel function. We also evaluated short-term seismicity rate perturbations according to the rate-and-state friction model, and the Coulomb stress changes imparted by earthquakes from 2006 to 2010. We assessed both long-term and short-term probabilistic seismic hazards by considering ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes. The long-term seismic hazard in Hualien City gave a PGA (peak ground acceleration) of 0.46 g for the 2.1&permil; annual exceedance probability. The result is similar to the levels determined in previous studies. Seismic hazards were significantly elevated following the 2007 <i>M</i><sub>L</sub> =5.8 earthquake that occurred approximately 10 km from Hualien City. This work presents an assessment of a suitable mechanism for time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard determinations using an updated earthquake catalog. Using minor model assumptions, our approach provides a suitable basis for rapid re-evaluations and will benefit decision-makers and public officials regarding seismic hazard mitigation.

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