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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NHESS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NHESS</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1684-9981</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>GÃ¶ttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/nhess-10-509-2010</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Fluvial flood risk management in a changing world</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Merz</surname>
<given-names>B.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hall</surname>
<given-names>J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Disse</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schumann</surname>
<given-names>A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Section Hydrology, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Newcastle University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne  NE1 7RU, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>UniversitÃ¤t der Bundeswehr, Institute for Hydro Sciences (IfW), Water Management and Resources Engineering, Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39, 85579 Neubiberg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Ruhr-University Bochum, Institute of Hydrology, Water Resources Management and Environmental Engineering, UniversitÃ¤tsstraÃŸe 150, 44801 Bochum, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>16</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2010</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>10</volume>
<issue>3</issue>
<fpage>509</fpage>
<lpage>527</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2010 B. Merz et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2010</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/10/509/2010/nhess-10-509-2010.html">This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/10/509/2010/nhess-10-509-2010.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/10/509/2010/nhess-10-509-2010.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/10/509/2010/nhess-10-509-2010.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Flood risk emerges from the interaction of hazard and vulnerability. Over
recent decades the notion of risk being the basis for flood management
decisions has become widely accepted and operationalised through the use of
models and quantified risk analysis providing the evidence for risk-informed
decision making. However, it is now abundantly apparent that changes in time,
at a range of scales, of pertinent variables that determine risk are not a
second order consideration but, instead, fundamentally challenge the
conventional approach to flood risk management. The nature of some of these
changes, particularly those that operate on extended timescales, are highly
uncertain, yet decisions that may have implications for several decades still
have to be taken. In this paper we explore how flood risk management may be
adapted to address processes of uncertain future change. We identify a range
of levels at which change may be incorporated in decision making: in the
representation of uncertain non-stationary quantities; in the rules that are
used to identify preferred options; in the variety of options that may be
contemplated for flood risk management; in the scope of problem definition,
which increasingly extends to address multiple hazards and multiple functions
of river basins; and in the social and organizational characteristics that
promote adaptive capacity. Integrated responses to changing flood risk need
to attend to each of these levels of decision making, from the technicalities
of non-stationarity, to the promotion of resilient societies.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="19"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
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